Methodology

Live and historical prices are sourced from Yahoo Finance market data for all ten covered assets. Forecast anchoring draws on public institutional research and official projections, including the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook for oil and natural gas, the World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook for agriculture, and published bank research (J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs, UBS, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Commerzbank, Standard Chartered) for metals and digital assets. Sources for each forecast are listed inside the unlocked card.

Each forecast is generated by an ensemble that combines trend and momentum indicators (moving averages, RSI, MACD), realized-volatility bands, and consensus anchoring against institutional targets. Scenario probabilities (bull / base / bear) are calibrated using options-implied volatility where available and the historical hit rate of previous forecasts on the same asset and horizon. Text rationales are analyst-reviewed; numeric targets are model-generated. The current model version is displayed on every card.

At the moment of publication, the forecast's asset, horizon, direction, target, range and UTC timestamp are serialized and hashed with SHA-256. The resulting fingerprint is displayed on the forecast card and in the track record. Published forecasts are immutable at the database level of our workflow: any correction requires publishing a new forecast with a new hash, never editing the old one.

When a forecast reaches its expiry date, the actual market price is recorded and three metrics are computed: directional correctness, percentage error versus target, and whether the outcome landed within the published range. Graded forecasts — right or wrong — are permanently listed on the track record page. We never delete, hide or retroactively adjust a graded forecast.